04 March 2010

In Europe, Wondering What Country Is Next

NY Times: Traders Seek Out the Next Greece in an Ailing Europe

[S]ome banks and hedge funds have already begun to turn their attention to other indebted nations, particularly Portugal, Spain, Italy and, to a lesser degree, Ireland.

Whatever the outcome in Athens, the debt crisis in Europe threatens to tip the financial, as well as political, balance of power across the Continent. With Germany and France emerging as the most likely rescuers, leaders in Berlin and Paris could end up dictating fiscal policy in Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain.

And in the months ahead, fears about the growing debt burden elsewhere in Europe are likely to return, according to investors and strategists. That is particularly worrying given that Western European countries must raise more than half a trillion dollars this year to refinance existing debts and cover their widening budget gaps.

France and Germany are emerging as the crucial backers of any lifeline for Greece, but they have slow growth and budget troubles of their own — deficits equaling 6.3 percent of gross domestic product in Germany and 7.5 percent in France. And among voters in both countries, “there is very little appetite for rescues,” said Marco Annunziata, chief economist for Unicredit.

The most vulnerable country after Greece, some analysts say, is Spain, which has been mired in a deep recession. Facing an unemployment rate of 20 percent, a budget gap of more than 10 percent of gross domestic product, and an economy expected to shrink by 0.4 percent this year, Madrid has little wiggle room if investors shun an expected 85 billion euros in new bond offerings this year.

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